RATMAN´S 2013 PENNSTATE FOOTBALL PREVIEW ........ AUGUST 13, 2013
2013 TEAM OVERVIEW
— Conference: Big Ten, Leaders
— Location: State College, Pa.
— Nickname: Nittany Lions
— Returning starters: 14 (8 offense, 6 defense)
— 2012 record: 8-4 (6-2)
Attrition robbed Penn State of everything but the kitchen sink, or so we heard, so it was quite surprising when the sink, a few walk-ons, a mathematician, a local kid and a rookie coach went 8-2 after a sluggish start, pushing back against storm clouds and bringing PSU back from the abyss of life post-NCAA sanctions.
You know, they play the games for a reason. And they'll continue to play the games for as long as Penn State fields a team, whether or not the team is any good, or led by Bill O'Brien, or stymied at every turn by crippling penalties and scholarship reductions. If last season proved anything, however, it's that the Nittany Lions' perceived nightmare existence – the inevitable decline of PSU football – can be fought off with coaching, schemes and player development.
The latter takes center stage in 2013, when the Nittany Lions replace eight starters, and especially during the course of the next two seasons, when the roster will lean more and more on non-scholarship players to augment smaller recruiting classes. The players will change, the standards might change, but the formula will remain the same: O'Brien will develop skill players, putting his talent in position to succeed, and weather the storm with every tool at his disposal.
LAST YEAR'S PREDICTION
When it comes to the Big Ten, it's hard, based on all the developments over the last few months – personnel, coaching and otherwise – to see PSU challenge either Ohio State or Wisconsin in the Leaders Division. Just a few of the issues, beyond the new systems: quarterback play, the offensive line, depth at receiver and running back, the secondary and the return game, where the Nittany Lions will miss Chaz Powell. This isn't a rebuilding year per se – not in the idea that PSU is going to drop off the map and win four games, for example. But in every way, this program is rebuilding: under a new coach, a new voice, new systems and, perhaps, a new outlook on the program's place in the Penn State community. While the Nittany Lions get into bowl play, probably winning seven games, I can't think of any reason to consider this team a major Big Ten contender in O'Brien's debut season.
2012 RECAP
— In a nutshell: To many, Penn State's worst fears were on the verge of becoming a reality after the 0-2 start, though it's clear in hindsight that each loss – Ohio and Virginia – was more a result of a team in transition than any inherent flaws in personnel or coaching. The Nittany Lions rebounded nicely from there, winning eight of 10 to end the year, and it's easy to say that PSU would have topped the Bobcats and Cavaliers had they met in November, not September. The two remaining losses: Ohio State and Nebraska. The impressive wins: Navy, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Remember when the sky was falling – when many were pegging PSU for a 10-loss season? Again, it's a good thing they play the games.
— High point: The season-ending win against Wisconsin. This was PSU's bowl game, in essence, and the Nittany Lions responded with a must-have win to head into the offseason with a high degree of confidence.
— Low point: The September losses still sting, though I'll make the case that each was needed, to a degree – since these early stumbles seemed to strengthen the Lions' resolve heading into Big Ten play. The most painful loss was the 32-23 decision to Nebraska, one defined by the would-be touchdown nullified by the officiating crew. (Nebraskans will say the call makes up for the blown call in 1982, though that's silly – the 1982 refereeing blunder was much, much worse.)
— Tidbit: PSU showed remarkable tenacity in 2012, continuing the program's recent trend of bouncing back after defeat. The Nittany Lions went 3-1 after a loss last fall – losing to Virginia after Ohio, beating Navy after Virginia, beating Purdue after Ohio State, beating Indiana after Nebraska – to give PSU a 21-3 mark in regular-season games following a loss since the start of the 2005 season.
— Tidbit (road wins edition): O'Brien opened his PSU tenure with road wins against Illinois, Iowa and Purdue, becoming just the Big Ten's fifth first-year coach since 1950 to begin his career with three road wins in a row during league play. The others: Illinois' Jim Valek (1967), Ohio State's Earle Bruce (1979), Iowa's Hayden Fry (1979) and Ohio State's Urban Meyer (2012).
FORMER PLAYERS IN THE NFL
— 39: LB NaVorro Bowman (San Francisco), TE Brett Brackett (Jacksonville), OT Levi Brown (Arizona), WR Deon Butler (San Diego), LB Dan Connor (New York Giants), DE Jack Crawford (Oakland), OT Mike Farrell (Pittsburgh), K Robbie Gould (Chicago), DT Tamba Hali (Kansas City), DT Jordan Hall (Seattle), LB Gerald Hodges (Minnesota), LB Josh Hull (St. Louis), CB Justin King (Pittsburgh), OT Dennis Landolt (New York Jets), LB Sean Lee (Dallas), LB Michael Mauti (Minnesota), LB Aaron Maybin (Cincinnati), QB Matthew McGloin (Oakland), CB Stephon Morris (New England), WR Derek Moye (Pittsburgh), WR Jordan Norwood (Cleveland), DE Jared Odrick (Miami), C Rich Ohrnberger (San Diego), LB Paul Posluzsny (Jacksonville), S Chaz Powell (Green Bay), TE Andrew Quarless (Green Bay), FB Michael Robinson (Seattle), RB Evan Royster (Washington), LB Bryan Scott (Buffalo), LB Tim Shaw (Tennessee), C A.Q. Shipley (Baltimore), TE Mickey Shuler (Arizona), DT Devon Still (Cincinnati), LB Nathan Stupar (San Francisco), TE Andrew Szczerba (Atlanta), OG Johnnie Troutman (San Diego), DE Cameron Wake (Miami), OG Stefan Wisniewski (Oakland), FB Michael Zordich (Carolina).
COACHING
— Bill O'Brien (Brown '92), 8-4 after his first season. No first-year coach in the history of college football – in the history of sports, perhaps – has ever inherited a more difficult situation. O'Brien's focus remained on the task at hand: retooling a program hearing a new voice for the first time in nearly a half-century while doing his best to ignore all those factors outside of his control. It's hard to find fault with anything he has done since replacing Joe Paterno in January 2012: O'Brien has comported himself well amid the storm, giving this football program some steady leadership during the offseason before leading the Nittany Lions to eight wins in his debut campaign.
O'Brien was hired in early January 2012 but remained in his position as the New England Patriots' offensive coordinator through the Super Bowl, cobbling together a fairly strong initial recruiting class despite the obvious impediments in his path. He's shown even greater recruiting acumen since taking on the job permanently, reeling in a very solid initial class and continuing to keep PSU in the mix with several high-profile targets as we reach the midway point of this current cycle. Prior to arriving at PSU, O'Brien spent five years with the Patriots, starting as an offensive assistant in 2007, becoming the wide receivers coach in 2008 and the quarterbacks coach in 2009 before adding coordinator duties during his last two seasons
Although New England was where O'Brien first landed national exposure, the heart of his coaching career has taken place on the college level. He started at his alma mater, Brown, coaching the tight ends and linebackers from 1993-94. He then moved to Georgia Tech (1995-97), where he spent three seasons as a graduate assistant. His first break came a year later, in 1998, when George O'Leary and then-offensive coordinator Ralph Friedgen promoted O'Brien to running backs coach. That began the first of nine seasons as an assistant in the ACC at Georgia Tech, Maryland and Duke. He was the coordinator at Tech for two years, from 2001-2; he rejoined Friedgen at Maryland from 2003-4, serving as the team's running backs coach; and then went to Duke, where he spent two seasons as the Blue Devils' coordinator and quarterbacks coach. Then came his time with the Patriots, and five years alongside Bill Belichick and Tom Brady is enough to boost any coach's stock.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
— Offense: This is not a coincidence: PSU went 1-2 when running the ball 28 times or less. Also not a coincidence: PSU went 1-3 when junior Zach Zwinak (1,000 yards) had 12 or fewer carries. The Nittany Lions' offense – and this entire team – turned a corner after Zwinak went from little-used backup to frontline starter, going 7-2 after the junior entered the lineup as the team's go-to back. His value was never more evident than during the final month, when Zwinak gained a combined 589 yards on 107 carries against Purdue, Nebraska, Indiana and Wisconsin, capping this run with a for-the-highlight-reel 179-yard performance in the narrow victory against the Badgers. Given his ability to shoulder the load and the way he ended last season, don't be surprised if Zwinak nears 300 carries in 2013; this is barring injury, of course, and whether or not O'Brien would rather keep Zwinak fresh by giving added touches to junior Bill Belton (258 yards) and redshirt freshman Akeel Lynch. The backfield is in very solid hands.
The offensive line will follow a very familiar formula: PSU returns a few starters, but will replace last season's lost contributors with seasoned, veteran linemen with a more than adequate degree of experience. The interior of the line will build around junior left guard Miles Dieffenbach and senior right guard John Urschel, the latter the most brilliant football-playing mathematician in the sport's history, while inserting a new starter at center. The new face in the middle, senior Ty Howle, spent last season behind Matt Stankiewitch, a first-team all-conference pick – so there's set to be a drop-off there, making center the biggest concern up front. On the outside, PSU returns a future star on the blind side in sophomore Donovan Smith but must choose a replacement for Mike Farrell at right tackle. While seniors Adam Gress and Eric Shrive lead the two-deep heading into fall camp, junior Garry Gilliam is an option if the staff feels the converted tight end can handle the load on the strong side.
This offense will continue to use its tight ends as effectively as any program in the country east of Stanford. Sophomore Kyle Carter (36 receptions for 453 yards) returns after missing the final three games of last season, giving PSU one of the elite young tight ends in college football; the Nittany Lions also return sophomore Jesse James (15 for 276) while adding in four-star freshman Adam Breneman, giving O'Brien three very promising tools in the intermediate passing game. This trio is buttressed by a solid top corps of receivers, a group paced by junior Allen Robinson (77 for 1,018 and 11 touchdowns) and senior Brandon Moseby-Felder (31 for 437), but PSU must develop stronger depth beyond the top grouping. Robinson alone is reason for optimism; however, PSU needs younger receivers like sophomore Matt Zanellato, junior Alex Kenney and redshirt freshmen Eugene Lewis and Jonathan Warner to step forward and create a stronger rotation.
— Defense: New coordinator John Butler takes over for Georgia Tech-bound Ted Roof, who oversaw a relatively up-and-down defense – by PSU's standards, at least – during his one year working under O'Brien. While coordinators change, the Nittany Lions' vision remains the same: PSU will continue to take its cue from the front four, a group that ranks easily among the top two or three in the Big Ten heading into the opener. There are some losses, including a major departure in tackle Jordan Hill, but Butler and the Nittany Lions have the depth, returning talent and overall experience to again dictate the tempo along the line of scrimmage. Doing so would offset a changing cast at linebacker and cornerback, though there's a nice degree of overall talent in the secondary. So, in summation: Penn State's defense should be pretty good.
Ownership of the interior of the line shifts from Hill to senior DaQuan Jones (22 tackles) and junior Kyle Baublitz, the two projected starters, while the Nittany Lions add redshirt freshmen Derek Downey, Austin Johnson and Brian Gaia into reserve roles. If we're nitpicking, the issue for PSU's interior is the dearth of pocket-breaking talent; Hill fit this bill, demanding attention on three downs, and it'll take a team effort to replicate his disruptive ability. For now – because one of the rookies could be special – the Nittany Lions' disruption will come outside at end, where junior C.J. Olaniyan and sophomores Deion Barnes (26 tackles, 6.0 sacks) and Anthony Zettel (15 tackles, 4.0 sacks) give PSU a very strong top threesome. To me, the line is far, far stronger than the sum of its parts – especially if the top six or seven embrace their roles within the system, with the interior linemen clogging lanes and occupying blockers and the ends taking advantage on third down.
With two elite starters gone, PSU's ever-elite linebacker corps will center on senior Glenn Carson (85 tackles), the team's leading returning tackler and a clear all-conference – and borderline All-American – candidate heading into his final season. Junior Mike Hull (58 tackles, 4.0 sacks) will step into a starting role on the outside after playing extensively last season, albeit behind Mike Mauti – but his production when on the field makes him a promising addition to PSU's starting lineup. PSU seems prepared to hand redshirt freshman Nyeem Wartman the other outside spot, bypassing sophomore Ben Kline, who seems destined to serve as the top reserve linebacker – an important role, as Hull proved a year ago. That linebacker is perceived as the weakest link in this defense is a good thing, considering Penn State's history at the position. But a lack of depth could lead O'Brien and Butler to use safeties in hybrid roles on the second level, particularly against spread-based teams like Ohio State, Nebraska and Indiana.
While the move could conceivably be reversed at any point during the next three months, PSU will shift junior Adrian Amos (44 tackles, 2 interceptions) from cornerback to safety, which would move senior Stephen Obeng-Agyapong (41 tackles) out of the starting lineup and into a reserve role. If this holds, PSU will start Amos and senior Malcolm Willis (45 tackles) at safety, putting its two most experienced defensive backs along the back end, while Obeng-Agyapong and juniors Ryan Keiser and Jesse Della Velle provide quality depth. Moving Amos drops PSU's experience at cornerback, obviously. It's all sophomores and freshmen on the two-deep, with sophomores Trevor Williams and Jordan Lucas the early starters but plenty of reason to believe the Nittany Lions will audition a handful of potential contributors throughout fall camp in August. What's the good news? While several freshmen will be asked to play immediately – O'Brien inked at least four defensive backs in February – PSU's depth in the secondary is dramatically improved from this point a year ago.
— Special teams: Junior kicker Sam Ficken rewarded O'Brien's confidence by making 12 of his last 13 field goals after a disastrous start, giving PSU some consistency at the position during the year's second half. Lost amid Ficken's struggles were the overall subpar play from the rest of PSU's special teams, from weak punting – though senior Alex Butterworth returns, and should be better – to ineffective coverage units. One could make the case that PSU's struggles in the return game and in coverage are a byproduct of lower numbers, but that's a bit of a stretch; the truth is that the Nittany Lions simply had a down year across the board, and even if you don't see some sort of night-and-day improvement, PSU should take a step forward due to an added degree of experience.
POSITION(S) TO WATCH
— Quarterback: There's certainly no way to be convinced of this fact, but I imagine O'Brien and PSU would have leaned toward Steven Bench had the would-be sophomore not opted to transfer shortly after the completion of spring drills, eventually landing at South Florida. With Bench no longer in the picture, O'Brien's search for Matt McGloin's successor has centered on two newcomers: sophomore Tyler Ferguson, a JUCO transfer, and true freshman Christian Hackenberg, one of the nation's top recruits. The bad news, such as it is, is that neither Ferguson nor Hackenberg bring any FBS experience to the table – or a strong familiarity with PSU's system, let alone the sort of battle-tested mentality McGloin brought to the table as a senior. The good news – and this is very good news – is that O'Brien's touch with quarterbacks is clearly his strongest nuts-and-bolts asset; McGloin was steadily terrific as a senior, making enormous strides in his decision-making and giving PSU reliable, consistent play under center. Given that, there's no reason to think O'Brien won't have a similar effect on Ferguson and Hackenberg, with this competition likely extending beyond fall camp and into the early season. Ferguson biggest advantage isn't his JUCO experience, though that's a bonus, but rather the fact he enrolled in January, giving him a deeper knowledge of this system, O'Brien's expectations and his surrounding personnel. Hackenberg, on the other hand, didn't join the program until June. But is there any question that Hackenberg is viewed as the Nittany Lions' long-term answer at the position? This might be the most interesting position battle in the Big Ten.
GAME(S) TO WATCH
— Syracuse: The four tough Big Ten games stand out – Michigan, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Nebraska – but the Nittany Lions must remain focused on the opener, Syracuse, and ensure no repeat of last season's sluggish start. The non-conference slate is intriguing: Syracuse is a fine team, if one that might fall short of bowl eligibility, and UCF has long circled its trip to Beaver Stadium as a potential breakthrough game in terms of its national exposure. Although a split of the above quartet is certainly doable, PSU can remove some of that pressure by taking care of business against the Big Ten's bottom half, opponents like Indiana, Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue.
SEASON BREAKDOWN & PREDICTION
— In a nutshell: Not to oversimplify things, but here goes: If Penn State could win eight games last fall, the program's first year under O'Brien and his staff, there's simply no reason why this team – despite some issues – can't do the same against a fairly difficult Big Ten slate. That's the general theme, in my opinion: PSU is not markedly worse as it enters another season of NCAA sanctions, and it could even offset its personnel issues with the confidence and growing familiarity that comes with another season under O'Brien. Although it's a fruitless scenario to consider, given the penalties, PSU is easily the third-best team in the Leaders Division, in my estimation, and very close to Wisconsin in the race for second place.
My optimism stems from the solid foundation developed on offense and the always strong nature of PSU's defense, even if the latter needs to locate new stars and new leaders after last season's departures. Defensively, the Nittany Lions' concerns are at outside linebacker and cornerback; even then, it's somewhat foolish to question the team's abilities on the second level – you know, since all PSU has done for decades is rebuild and reload at linebacker. But there will be some pressure on the front four to get consistent pressure on the quarterback while the Nittany Lions retool at cornerback. In all, the defense is destined for another solid season; it won't get worse than that, though you could see an improved showing should the many underclassmen up front and along the back seven produce from the start.
My bigger concern is this offense. It'll take a high degree of patience under center, for one, as the Nittany Lions move from McGloin to one of two newcomers, Ferguson and Hackenberg. In time, O'Brien will tutor one of this pair from fresh-faced rookie to standout Big Ten quarterback; I just worry about the offense's production under center in 2013, which could have a dramatic impact on the team's overall pass-run balance. A weaker passing game takes away from Zwinak, allowing opposition to put seven men in the box, and such a scenario would be a nightmare for O'Brien and this offense.
If all goes according to plan, PSU will sweep through non-conference play and split the four big games during Big Ten action, ending the year at 10-2 – or 9-3, giving this team some room for one slipup against another conference opponent. I think that's possible, if overly optimistic. But should the Nittany Lions feature strong play from the quarterback position, get pressure up front, solve depth issues at linebacker and land consistency at cornerback, this team should put pressure on Ohio State in the Leaders Division. To me, it's safer to call for another eight-win regular season.
— Dream season: Penn State goes 11-1, losing only to Ohio State, and ends the regular season ranked among the top five.
— Nightmare season: The Nittany Lions' offense takes a step back and the defense is stung by injuries, leading to a 4-8 finish in O'Brien's second year with the program.
